Value wagers in sports betting can lead to long-term profitability if you can execute and leverage them to your advantage. Unfortunately, not every value bet will succeed. However, you may have a few that pan out well as you learn more about your favorite sport and make the best predictions accordingly.
Monitoring shifting Novibet betting odds can help you uncover value bets based on different changes in the sports wagering market. Odds can shift for multiple reasons because of changes in the local and international betting landscape
Here’s a guide on how to identify these shifting odds to get the most out of value wagers in sports betting. The most important part is timing your bets strategically, which we will explore more in the ending part of this piece.
Why Do Betting Odds Shift?
Betting odds shift for many reasons. Individuals betting heavily on a specific occurrence causes bookmakers to shift odds to keep a balanced liability. Player injuries can dramatically change odds.
Public (or recreational) bettors prefer to follow the latest trends before making betting decisions. Sharp bettors utilize analytics and predictive models to make sports betting wagers.
Track Opening vs. Current Odds
An opening line shows a bookmaker’s original estimate for a specific sports bet. The closing line is the final calculated odds once there have been adjustments. If you see that specific odds are not aligning with public perception, it may be a value bet.
An example of such could be betting on an underdog rather than the fan favorite. Use betting odds comparison tools to see how these lines alter across multiple bookmakers.
Watch for Reverse Line Movement (RLM)
When the betting line moves opposite to the majority of public wagers, this is known as reverse line movement. For example, a sharp bettor may prefer betting on the other team if about 75% of the public is backing a more popular team in a sports game. This is a great example of how shifting odds can cause a reverse line movement.
Identify Overreactions
Some betting markets may overreact to specific news or hype about a team’s performance or a key player’s contribution. If the star striker is currently injured on one team, odds may shift dramatically because of how well they carry the team. However, a notable substitute could return odds close to the present value.
Time Your Bets Strategically
Odds shift the most before and during a sports game. As players make different moves on the field and injuries occur, the odds shift based on the new information.
Casual bettors may not back a popular team in favor of the underdog. Most bettors will want to support the crowd favorite. Hence, betting early at the longer odds can help to secure more value before the price drops.
